We discuss our top predictions for the online video market 2016. Topics include data, Amazon, connect TV, and new linear.
Data was a big deal in 2015, and I believe it will be an even bigger deal in 2016. Premium TV providers are realizing that it is a critical part of their business. As frustration grows with established data providers, like Nielsen, TV channels will increasingly be forced to launch their own online services to get the data they need. They will do this both as part of the pay TV subscription, through TV Everywhere, and as standalone SVOD apps.
Will remains bullish on Amazon, saying he expects the company to consolidate its position in the coming year. He thinks the company has all the pieces it needs to be a bigger player in video. Specifically, Will thought the streaming media program, originals, and video devices were great examples of the company’s solid positioning going into the year. I was a little more cautious as their implementations of the new features are often incomplete and difficult to use.
Connected TVs were my next theme for the year. Mobile has been in the ascendancy for the last couple of years. However, with SVOD now beginning to draw in the late adopters in the market, the TV is becoming much more important as a delivery vehicle. With the improvements in wireless routers and service, and improvements in installation procedures for the TV devices, the market is ready to embrace OTT video on the television.
The cable video industry was singled by Will as looking like it would have a pretty decent year. He thinks that, while satellite will have a bad year and telco an indifferent one, cable video providers will have a good year. They will reduce, though not eliminate, the losses they have suffered over the last few years. I thought it was odd to celebrate something being less bad than expected, though I thought it was good that operators were finally rolling out hybrid set-top boxes to the masses.
Will and I then touch briefly on some of the other things that will be important in the year ahead. Topics we cover include new linear online, SVOD launches and failures, the growing problem with live synchronization, and programmatic ads.
Finally, we discuss our predictions from last year. Our predictions for Facebook, Linear ratings declines, SVOD launches and OTT apps on operator STBs were pretty solid. However, we had some misses too. Will thought the Comcast/Time Warner Cable merger would be approved. I thought TV operators would begin to launch cloud TV services in earnest. Though Comcast did, few others followed suit.
Chapter 1: Data (1:20)
Chapter 2: Amazon (4:00)
Chapter 3: Connected TV (7:00)
Chapter 4: Good year for cable providers (9:10)
Chapter 5: New linear online (12:50)
Chapter 6: SVOD launches and failures (13:45)
Chapter 7: Live Sync Online (14:50)
Chapter 8: Programmatic Ads (15:45)
Chapter 9: How we did on 2015 predictions (17:40)